Causes and effects of anomalous weather central to YSU PhD student's scientific project

Haykanush Azizyan presented the importance and expected outcomes of the project titled "Analysis and Evaluation of the Spatiotemporal Changes in the Occurrence of Anomalous Heat and Cold Weather in the Ararat Basin". 

Research Using Current and Baseline Climate Data

The study will focus on investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics and evaluation of weather anomalies in the Ararat Basin. It aims to identify the causes and patterns underlying extreme weather conditions. The analysis will utilize both current and baseline climate data, including temperature gradients, precipitation levels, wind dynamics, and deviations from typical weather norms.

The research will be conducted in locations with meteorological stations, including Ashtarak, Aparan, Talin, Tsaghkahovit, Amberd, Aragatsavan, Ararat, Artashat, Urtsadzor, Armavir, Yeghvard, Garni, and other areas where local climatic studies can be carried out.

Contributing to Strategies for Combating Desertification and Climate-Related Health Issues

Climate variability in the Ararat Basin is one of the primary causes of agricultural decline, the degradation of natural ecosystems, and biodiversity loss in Armenia. Anomalous heat leads to droughts, soil degradation, and crop failures, posing a threat to food security and livelihoods. Anomalous cold conditions can cause frost damage, affecting crop yields and productivity. These extreme weather events, particularly anomalous heat, accelerate desertification and ecosystem degradation, which in turn affects endemic plant and animal species. Extreme cold weather can also disrupt the ecological balance, endangering wildlife and plant survival. These climate variations also have social consequences. Anomalous heat and cold conditions can exacerbate health risks, leading to climate-related diseases, especially among vulnerable populations. 

Therefore, assessing the spatiotemporal distribution of anomalies is crucial for developing adaptive and resilient strategies. By understanding the causes and patterns of extreme weather events, relevant institutions and local communities will be better prepared and more effective in responding to such phenomena.

Application of Modern Research Methods

In the initial phase of the study, fieldwork will be conducted to examine the area, collect data, and study the climatic characteristics. The collected data will be compared and supplemented with multi-year data from hydrometeorological observations and local records. Remote sensing techniques will be employed to complement and finalize the data.

In the next phase, data analysis will be conducted, incorporating statistical methods to assess temperature fluctuations, precipitation levels, and other climatic parameters.

The research will also explore the use of machine learning algorithms for predictive analysis based on archival data, involving relevant stakeholders. The GIS software package will be used for spatial analysis and for mapping temperature anomalies in comparison with geological formations, vegetation cover, and settlements.

This phased approach will enable the identification of the aforementioned issues and will contribute to assessing the broader impacts within the framework of global climate change models.

The research team includes Haykanush Azizyan's thesis supervisor Varduhi Margaryan, PhD in Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor at YSU Faculty of Geography and Geology. Based on the findings of this research, at least three scientific articles are expected to be published.