Armenia has preconditions to continue its bridging policy with the West and Russia - researcher at YSU Institute of Armenian Studies

The main goal of the research project was to identify internal and external threats to Armenia's military security, assess the political issues in military security, and explore mechanisms for addressing them. The research also touched on contemporary legal challenges, particularly the protection of military-related information.

"Armenia's traditional alliances have not functioned as effectively as we had hoped. This refers to the allied relationship with Russia in the context of CSTO mechanisms. We cannot claim that the alternative to this failure is cooperation with other power centers. At present, there is no power center that can offer us substantial security guarantees that would allow us to establish allied relations with them," said Rafik Avetisyan. 

According to him, the current cooperation with Western partners is focused on enhancing Armenia's resilience rather than providing security guarantees for the country.

"The resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will significantly impact regional and Armenian security. In the event of a US-Russia agreement, which could lead to the separation of zones of influence, there is a likelihood that regional dynamics in the South Caucasus will take precedence. This would mean that Turkey-Russia-Iran cooperation will play a more prominent role in shaping the regional security framework. However, if the West achieves notable successes in the Russia-Ukraine war, it is highly likely that the region will be increasingly influenced by cooperation agendas with the European Union, particularly regarding Armenia-Georgia relations," he pointed out.

Rafik Avetisyan emphasized that the analysis mainly led to the conclusion that Armenia should avoid becoming a battleground for geopolitical competition between Russia and the West.

"One of Armenia's foreign and security policy priorities is to maintain the cooperation frameworks it has with both the West and Russia, conducting a balanced foreign policy without significant shifts in its foreign policy course. This means striving for as balanced diplomatic relations as possible and conducting a balanced policy in the fields of economy, society, energy, and other areas," noted YSU researcher.

He also stated that Armenia has always been one of the countries capable of maintaining balanced relations with both the West and Russia. In this context, he emphasized: "Armenia is the only country in the Eastern Partnership of the European Union that has had a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU, which does not exclude Armenia's membership in the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union). These preconditions remain in place, and thus Armenia can continue its bridging policy with the West and Russia."

Referring to recent events in Georgia and the adoption of the foreign influence transparency law, Rafik Avetisyan, based on his analysis, remarked: "Georgia is not attempting to shift its foreign policy vector, but rather aims to maintain a balanced approach with both Russia and the West, especially in economic terms, while not excluding the European integration agenda."

In conclusion, the researcher stressed that Armenia’s main military security threats are linked to the political processes of being excluded from the post-Soviet security framework of the South Caucasus and not being integrated into any broader security framework.

"The region is no longer discussed in the context of post-Soviet political dynamics. There are no preconditions for engaging in any broader security framework. The region now increasingly reflects the political processes occurring in the security frameworks of Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East," he said, adding that Armenia's security issues are a consequence of the failure to form the South Caucasus security framework. The region is gradually becoming more dependent on global geopolitical processes.

The research was conducted over the course of a year, resulting in the publication of scientific articles in journals listed in periodicals approved by the Supreme Certifying Committee of Armenia. One article, titled "The Protection of Military Information as a Guarantee of Military Security," was published in the "Banber EIU" scientific journal, while another, titled "The Effect of Global Geopolitical Competition on the Formation of the South Caucasus Security Complex: The Strategic Modeling of Armenia's Security Policy," was published in YSU’s "Issues of Armenian Studies" journal. 

Another article, related to the transformation processes in the South Caucasus security framework, has been developed and submitted for publication in a high-ranking international academic journal. The article has passed the review phase and is ready for publication.